MANILA, Philippines – The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Surigao del Norte developed into a tropical depression and was named ‘Lannie’, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Monday, October 4, 2021.

At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression ‘Lannie’ was estimated based on all available data at 100 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.

Satellite image of 'Bagyong Lannie'
Satellite image of ‘Bagyong Lannie’ as of 5:00 am, october 4, 2021. Photo from PAGASA

‘Bagyong Lannie’ has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa. It is moving northwestward at 20 km/h.


TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT


TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)

Luzon

  • the southern portion of Masbate (Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Dimasalang, Uson, Mobo, Milagros, Mandaon, Esperanza, Placer, Cawayan, Balud)
  • the southern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Santa Maria, Odiongan, Alcantara, Ferrol, Looc, Santa Fe, San Jose)
  • the southern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao, Bongabong)
  • the southern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay)
  • the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands.

Visayas

  • Eastern Samar
  • Samar
  • Biliran
  • Leyte
  • Southern Leyte
  • Capiz
  • Aklan
  • Antique
  • Iloilo
  • Guimaras
  • Negros Occidental
  • the northern and central portions of Negros Oriental (Bais City, Mabinay, City of Bayawan, Basay, City of Tanjay, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, City of Guihulngan, Vallehermoso, Canlaon City)
  • Cebu
  • Bohol

Mindanao

  • Surigao del Norte
  • Dinagat Islands
  • the northern portion of Agusan del Norte (Magallanes, Remedios T. Romualdez, City of Cabadbaran, Tubay, Santiago, Jabonga, Kitcharao, Butuan City)
  • the northern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, City of Bayugan, Prosperidad)
  • the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (San Miguel, Marihatag, San Agustin, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, City of Tandag, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal, Lianga)
'Bagyong Lannie' PAGASA signal

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

On the forecast track, Tropical Depression ‘Lannie’ may make landfall in the vicinity of Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands in the next 6 hours.

Afterwards, the tropical depression will move generally west northwestward and cross Dinagat Islands and Visayas archipelago before emerging over the Sulu Sea tomorrow early morning near or over the Cuyo archipelago.

'Bagyong Lannie' PAGASA track

It will then turn northwestward and may pass near or over northern Palawan or Calamian Islands tomorrow morning or early afternoon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late afternoon or evening.

Throughout the period of its traverse over the central Philippines, ‘Lannie’ is forecast to remain as a tropical depression, with a possibility of slight intensification once over the Sulu Sea.

After reaching the West Philippine Sea, ‘Lannie’ will continue moving northwestward until Thursday, when it is forecast turn more north northwestward and decelerate.

From Wednesday until the end of the forecast period, it is forecast to intensify. It may reach tropical storm category by Wednesday afternoon and severe tropical storm category by the end of the forecast period.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS


Heavy Rainfall

Today through tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are likely over Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, CALABARZON, and Caraga Region.

Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are also possible over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Bataan, and the rest of Mindanao.

Under these conditions, scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.


Severe Winds

Strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced within any of the areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect during the passage of the tropical depression. This may generally cause up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.

An enhanced easterly flow north of the tropical depression may also bring occasionally gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale in strength over Extreme Northern Luzon and the coastal and upland/mountainous areas of the eastern section of Luzon in the next 24 hours.


HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

In the next 24 hours, ‘Lannie’ will bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters of the country, especially in areas where TCWS No. 1 is in effect. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.


TROPICAL CYCLONES

‘Lannie’ is the 12th tropical cyclone for 2021.

PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.

— The Summit Express



‘Bagyong Lannie’ PAGASA weather update October 4, 2021
Source: Trend Buzz Pinoy