MANILA, Philippines – ‘Bagyong Kiko’ (international name: Chanthu) has passed to the east of Babuyan Islands and is now heading towards Batanes, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Saturday, September 11, 2021.

At 4:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon ‘Kiko’ was located based on all available data including those from Aparri Doppler Weather Radar at 75 km South of Basco, Batanes.

Satellite image of 'Bagyong Kiko' as of 4:20 am, September 11, 2021
Satellite image of ‘Bagyong Kiko’ as of 4:20 am, September 11, 2021. Photo from PAGASA

‘Bagyong Kiko’ has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 265 km/h, and central pressure of 920 hPa. It is moving north northwestward at 15 km/h. Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 250 km from the center.


TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT


TCWS No. 4 (Very Destructive typhoon-force winds prevailing or expected within 12 hours)

  • Batanes
  • the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)


TCWS No. 3 (Destructive typhoon-force winds prevailing or expected within 18 hours)

  • the northwestern and southeastern portions of Babuyan Islands (Panuitan Is., Calayan Is., Camiguin Is., Pamuktan Is., Didicas Is.)


TCWS No. 2 (Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)

  • the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Ballesteros, Abulug, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Claveria, Santa Praxedes)


TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)

  • the rest of mainland Cagayan
  • the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Piddig, Solsona, Burgos, Pasuquin, Bacarra, Laoag City, San Nicolas, Sarrat, Dingras, Pagudpud)
  • Apayao
  • the northern portion of Kalinga (Balbalan, Pinukpuk, City of Tabuk, Rizal)
  • the northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong)
  • the northern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Ilagan City, Quirino, Quezon, Mallig, Tumauini, Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Delfin Albano, Santo Tomas, Santa Maria)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals hoisted in other areas are hereby lifted.

'Bagyong Kiko' PAGASA signal

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

Typhoon ‘Kiko’ is forecast to pass over or near Batanes in the next 12 hours.

On the forecast track, ‘Kiko’ will move generally northward or north northeastward beginning tomorrow and pass over the sea east of Taiwan (without ruling out the possibility of landfall).

'Bagyong Kiko' PAGASA track

The typhoon is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Monday early morning. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will move northward or north northeastward over the East China Sea.

The typhoon is forecast to maintain its strength while traversing the Babuyan-Batanes area in the next 12 hours but is forecast to begin weakening later today or tomorrow as ‘Kiko’ undergoes another eyewall replacement cycle.

'Bagyong Kiko' PAGASA intensity

While intensification into Super Typhoon is not the more likely scenario in the very near term, it is still not ruled out. Further weakening will continue throughout the forecast period as the typhoon interacts with the rugged terrain of Taiwan.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS


Heavy Rainfall

In the next 24 hours, Typhoon ‘Kiko’ will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Babuyan Islands and Batanes.

Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are also likely over Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, and Kalinga.

Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.

Typhoon ‘Kiko’ will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing monsoon rains over Metro Manila, the rest of Ilocos Region and Cordillera, and the western sections of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon in the next 24 hours.


Severe Winds

Winds may reach typhoon-force strength between 171 and 220 km/h within any of the areas where TCWS No. 4 is hoisted during the passage of the typhoon. This may cause generally heavy to very heavy damage to structures and vegetation.

Winds may reach typhoon-force strength of up to 170 km/h within any of the areas where TCWS No. 3 is hoisted during the passage of the typhoon. This may cause generally moderate to heavy damage to structures and vegetation.

Winds may reach gale- to storm-force strength within any of the areas where TCWS No. 2 is in effect. This may result to light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.

Winds reaching strong breeze to near gale strength (i.e., strong winds) will be felt within any of the areas where TCWS No. 1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.

In the next 24 hours, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring occasional gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale strength over the coastal and upland/mountain areas of Luzon that are not under wind signal.


Coastal Inundation

A moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2.0 to 3.0 m in height may occur in the next 24 hours.

Rising sea water along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes and northeastern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands.


HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

In the next 24 hours, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS is in effect. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon that are not under TCWS. Sea travel is risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.

Due to the typhoon enhancing the Southwest Monsoon, Gale Warning is currently in effect for the seaboards of Zambales and Bataan, and the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands.


TROPICAL CYCLONES

‘Kiko’, the 11th tropical cyclone for 2021, enters PAR on Tuesday, September 7.

PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.

— The Summit Express